February 24, 2016

Dear NJGCA Member:

Thank you for reading this week's NJGCA Road Warrior!

Here is what you will find in this edition:

NJGCA JOINS OPPORTUNITY NJ TO FIGHT $15/HOUR MINIMUM WAGE
TRENTON TAKES AIM AT YOUR TOBACCO SALES
MARKETPLACE PREDICTIONS
QUESTIONS ABOUT USED MOTOR OIL
NJGCA FREE BREAKFAST MEETING IN PARAMUS ON MARCH 2ND!

Lots in this week’s Road Warrior but PLEASE READ!

I returned early from a short vacation last Friday when I heard that an emergency press conference was being organized against the proposal to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour. My wife wasn’t happy with me but NJGCA took the first step in the fight against the very real threat of a $15/hour minimum wage in New Jersey by officially joining the coalition group Opportunity New Jersey. Three of our members spoke at the press conference on Friday to describe in real-life terms what a $15 minimum wage would mean to their businesses. We all owe Craig Copeland, Jeff O'Connor and Ebbie Ashabi a very big thank you for their participation! This is the beginning of a real call to arms, and I expect each and every one of you to get involved at some point! It's always better for legislators and the media to hear from you than from me! An NJTV segment covered the event, but unfortunately the comments by NJGCA members Jeff, Ebbie, and Craig were edited because of time limitations. Click here to watch the clip. I did however highlight their remarks in this press release that we put out on Monday. At the bottom of my message are some photos of Craig, Ebbie and Jeff.

Opportunity New Jersey is also taking action on two other potentially crippling proposals: mandatory paid sick leave for all employees and guaranteed payments into the pension fund for State workers. You all should have a good grasp of the ramifications of mandatory paid sick leave... If you missed our presentation on the issue at the Auto Repair and Tire Shop Summit two weeks ago, you can click here to find the information that was presented by NJGCA Associate Director of Government Affairs, Eric Blomgren.

Guaranteed payments into the pension fund for State workers will require the State to come up with an additional $3 billion per year, EVERY year. This will only be possible through significantly higher tax rates -- income taxes, sales tax, gas tax, employer taxes and corporate taxes. So you, the small business owner, will get hit by tax increases in all of these categories, just so that State workers can get their pension fully funded. If these three proposals scare you the way they terrify me, it's time to get involved!

Here's what NJGCA is doing: We joined the coalition as one of the first organizations to jump on board. We're accustomed to joining with other organizations whose interests are the same as ours on any given issue. Our ability to identify and join with like-minded forces has been a large part of our past successes. Presently, there are about 20 of these like-minded trade associations and small business organizations pledging their support. My prediction is that the seriousness of this issue will bring more than 100 organizations together. I will keep you informed as we move along, but there are going to be fundraising efforts for things like TV commercials and plenty of opportunities for grassroots gatherings and activism. And yes, I will be asking you to participate!

Here's how I plan to represent NJGCA's message: THE ORANGE CONE! There are few of you who do not employ The Orange Cone at your pumps. Every orange cone that blocks access to a pump represents an employee that you can't afford to hire now. Raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour will force you to employ more orange cones and fewer humans. Orange Cones also don't call in sick and they won’t require paid sick leave! Is self-serve starting to look even better to you now?

Your first assignment: Please ask your accountant to help you with this if you aren't able to do it accurately yourself. It is critical that you calculate the current cost per gallon of your employees at the pumps, and what the cost of those employees will be if minimum wage becomes $15/hour. Thankfully, the three NJGCA members who appeared in front of the press last week had those figures at the top of their heads, and although they varied, which I expected, they made a very compelling case for our side of the argument. It will also be helpful for you to calculate the cost of employees in your repair shop and your convenience stores. Many shops employ part-time help and apprentices who will be seriously affected by a $15/hour minimum wage, as well as store clerks. I want to make the case for all.

Aside from these three monster issues we are facing, legislators in Trenton didn't waste any time renewing their efforts to destroy your tobacco sales! Legislators have once again taken the first steps to raise the purchase age of tobacco from 19 to 21, and also to ban smoking at parks and beaches. Both pieces of legislation were passed by their Assembly committees on Monday, and for strategic reasons I declined to testify at the committee hearings, although I was present just in case something I heard caused me to change my mind at the last minute. There are still a few more steps in the process, but there's no question that the Democratic majority has made this a priority.

I'm going to shift gears to the marketplace now. I haven't discussed the marketplace as much recently as I would've several years ago, because there are so many changing factors, I don't have quite as much faith in myself and my usually-reliable crystal ball. However, here are some facts that you need to keep in the back of your mind as we contemplate where prices may be heading in the upcoming months.

1. We still have an incredible abundance of both crude oil and gasoline in the worldwide supply, and it doesn't appear that anything is going to change that. Output of oil from the US appears to be steady and even growing. Projections are that US oil production will rise to about 14 billion barrels a day by the year 2024. Considering that the US consumes 15 billion barrels of crude a day, producing 14 billion barrels a day by 2024 will cover almost 100% of present US consumption.

2. There doesn't seem to be upward pressure on demand. Even though government tracking of vehicle miles traveled reveals that last year was a record year for miles traveled in our nation, and 2016 is also beginning with record VMT, demand for gasoline is still flat, and often even trends downward. This is attributed entirely to much-improved mileage standards of vehicles on the road today. So even as people take to the roads more, less fuel is being consumed, which again leaves you all fighting for a slice of a smaller pie.

Both of these factors will continue putting downward pressure on both the price of crude oil and gasoline. A little over a year ago, crude oil was about $65/barrel, and over the past 2 months it has been trading between $27 - $33 a barrel, fluctuating daily.

A third factor will actually apply some upward pressure on the price of finished product, particularly gas -- the switchover from winter blend to summer blend as required by the EPA. Summer blends are more costly to produce and there will be spot-outages at refineries at this time of the year as they re-tool and perform maintenance to prepare for the production of summer blends.

So these are two factors that apply downward pressure, and one factor that should apply upward pressure, which means I don't really have a clue where the prices are heading. My instincts have been humbled. People smarter than I think that prices are going to remain pretty much where they are now, maybe 10 to 15 cents/gallon higher.

Moving on again, we continue to receive calls from many of you so I'm going to revisit the issue of waste oil. I know you have all been accustomed to having somebody come take your waste oil and then pay you for it. There were also times when somebody came and collected it, they didn't pay you for it, but they took it away for free. Now, depending on the amount of oil removed from your premises, you could be charged anywhere from 35 cents/gallon to 90 cents/gallon.

We made some phone calls, and from what we can tell, the magic number for waste oil haulers seems to be 200 gallons. If your hauler visits you to remove less than 200 gallons, you can expect to pay closer to 90 cents/gallon. If you don't have capacity in your waste oil storage tank to meet the 200 gallon threshold, I suggest that you consider filling some 55 gallon drums (of course make sure they are properly labeled as waste oil). Some of the waste oil companies will even sell the drums to you!

The issue is this: End-users who recycle used motor oil and sell the recycled product cannot compete with the current low cost of virgin crude oil that I mentioned above. It's cheaper to buy virgin crude oil rather than to recycle used motor oil. So, until the price of crude oil goes back up, you can expect to pay to have your waste oil removed.

Some members have also asked about the fact that they are being charged sales tax for the waste oil removal. After looking into it, we have determined that you SHOULD be paying sales tax if you are paying the hauler to make the pick-up, because they are providing the taxable service of removing the waste oil.

Finally, we are excited to host a FREE breakfast meeting next week in Paramus! It will be at the Suburban Diner on Wednesday, March 2 at 9:30 AM. We encourage our members to attend and even bring a friend in the industry who is not yet an NJGCA member. It's free for you and them, so there's no reason not to set aside a few hours to learn about potential threats to your business and see everything that we do! If you plan to attend, please simply reply to this email or call Jacy at 732-256-9646.

And, of course, I can't forget to plug our new venture into social media... This might become a weekly thing, but we are going to keep reminding you because this is a way for you to follow our activities on a daily basis. Get information about the industry and keep yourself updated with relevant news stories with two simple clicks below. And of course share your views! Follow Us on Twitter and Like Us on FaceBook

Four (4) Full Days -- Starts February 23
Days: 9AM - 5PM on Tuesdays -- Feb 23, March 1, 8, 15

Monday, March 14th -- 7:00 AM - 3:00 PM
Class Starts 7:00 AM (donuts and coffee provided)
Pizza and soda served at 12:00 pm
MVC Test at 1:00 PM

Cost: Member = $250
Non-Member = $300

Please bring $50.00 check made payable to NJMVC to satisfy the State's licensing fee

For more information and Registration Form, click HERE

FUTURE CLASSES WILL BE ADDED UPON REQUEST AND ACCORDING TO DEMAND. CONTACT DEBBIE at 732-256-9646 or DEBBIE@NJGCA.ORG TO LET HER KNOW YOU ARE INTERESTED IN TAKING A SPECIFIC CLASS. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO GAUGE YOUR NEEDS AND KEEP TRACK OF THOSE WISHING TO PARTICIPATE!!

CLASSIFIEDS! -- FOR SALE & HELP WANTED ADS

NJGCA MEMBER BENEFIT PARTNER GILL ENERGY LOOKING TO HIRE FOR (3) DIFFERENT POSITIONS!

For more information about these positions, and to submit a resume for consideration, please contact: ravigill@gillenergy.com.

02/24/2016:
Chicago Tobacco Ordinance About Small Business, Not Big Tobacco: Restrictions proposed by Emanuel would have devastating economic consequences
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel continues to claim that his proposed tobacco ordinance -- which would enact a new tax on other tobacco products, set minimum cigarette and tobacco prices, mandate minimum package sizes, prohibit the redemption of tobacco product coupons, and raise the legal age to buy tobacco to 21 -- is all about Big Tobacco. Nothing could be further from the truth. Emanuel’s anti-tobacco campaign has included raising the cigarette tax to a nationwide high of $7.17/pack when state, county and city cigarette taxes are all added together, imposing a tax on e-cigs, prohibiting e-cigs anywhere smoking is currently restricted, and banning the sale of most flavored tobacco products within 500 ft. of schools. Chicago City Council aldermen acknowledge that these actions have had the unintended consequence of creating a black market for tobacco products within the city, fueled the illegal sale of single or “loosie” cigarettes on the streets, forced Chicago residents to travel outside the city to buy their preferred tobacco products, and cost retail stores sales and employees their jobs.

02/24/2016:
N.J. Democrats risk too much by relying on pensions amendment | Editorial
Here's a chilling question: what happens if NJ Democrats win the fight for a constitutional amendment forcing big pension payments, and then a recession hits? The answer: Gov. Christie will be proven right, because the state will have no choice but to impose deep spending cuts or stiff tax hikes. The Democrats' plan gets it all backwards: It locks in the big pension payments first and envisions cuts in health spending for public workers later. That's risky, because those benefit cuts may never materialize. If you throw a recession into the mix, it gets downright scary. Democrats are banking on steady growth in state tax revenues averaging 3.34% a year over the next six years. But if history is any guide, that won't happen, thanks to the business cycle. Economists at the National Governors Association's winter meeting last weekend warned that states should brace themselves for that inevitability. Since WWII, the American economy has fallen into recession 11 times, with the average expansion afterward lasting five years. The current expansion began six years ago. "The next recession is probably closer than the last one, " said Joseph Lake, with the Economist Intelligence Unit.

02/23/2016:
In Sweeney’s $15 Minimum Wage Proposal, an Overture for 2017
Since announcing a bill that would raise the minimum wage to $15 as early as 2021 last week, the question remains whether Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-3) will pursue the issue with a ballot question to amend the state constitution rather than letting a veto from Governor Chris Christie quash the increases. With that ballot question expected to go to voters in 2017 when Sweeney will likely run for the Democratic nomination for governor, the minimum wage issue could be a way for Sweeney to drum up his labor support for the primary and for his caucus to fall back on a dependable populist message. Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray said Sweeney’s confrontational approach will be a lure for labor support during the primary. With Sweeney facing potential political fallout from renegotiated or terminated collective bargaining agreements as the result of his state takeover effort in Atlantic City, that appeal to the rank and file could serve him well.

We have had a number of NJGCA members successfully reduce their rate per kWh signing up through our energy saving program. We know it's difficult to collect 12 months worth of previous electric bills to get an "accurate" analysis when comparing a variable rate to a fixed rate, but we now have another option available.

This new solution is a power purchase option; the other program is still in full force and has saved members thousands of dollars. If you sign up for the power purchase option, you will be grouped with other NJGCA members until the minimum kW demand is acquired. By pooling the member's usage together, you will be able to take advantage, as large energy users do, and receive a lower kWh rate.

Each member will receive their own contract. Each member is responsible to sign and return the agreement the day it is received in order to secure the price for their group.

Please do your due diligence, so when you receive the proposal and the agreement you will be able to make an intelligent decision.

If by chance, you still want us to assess you bills, to give you a price to compare, we will require 12 months of your most recent utility bills.

There are no bills required, but we would still like to have one bill per meter on file to check account #'s, meter #'s service addresses and other pertinent information incase there is a problem.

The term of the agreement is for 12 months. During this term period, you will have price protection against any energy price increases along with a low fixed kWh rate.

If you are interested in becoming part of this power purchase option, please contact Greg Cannon at the NJGCA.

Remember when you sign up your energy through the NJGCA Energy Program, TMP makes a considerable donation to the NJGCA Scholarship Fund through their proceeds. This has no affect on your rate, and costs you nothing out of pocket.

We hope to help hundreds of NJGCA members reduce their utility costs by participating in this and our other cost reduction programs. Our purpose, in the endeavor, is to help NJGCA members lower their energy costs while supporting the NJGCA Scholarship Fund.

Contact GREG CANNON at 732-256-9646 or email Greg at greg@njgca.org. Mention that you are interested in saving money on your energy bills. NJGCA & TMP Energy Solutions will handle all the rest.

POLITICAL PARTICIPATON: THE NJGCA PAC

DEFENDING OUR MEMBERS.
PROTECTING YOUR INTERESTS.
ANSWER THE CALL & CONTRIBUTE TODAY!!

Promoting our agenda in Trenton is of utmost importance to NJGCA and our members.

However, in order to truly affect the debate, we must ensure our friends in the Legislature are re-elected. It is for this reason that your Association has established the NJGCA PAC.

For too long, the weight of funding our Political Action Committee, the arm of the Association responsible for political donations, has rested upon a few. This is not only unfair to those few members who have shouldered this burden, but means we are not utilizing our full strength to affect the debate in Trenton.

To truly understand the importance of supporting our allies, consider our successes in Trenton:

We defeated BELOW COST SELLING
We made history in getting FIRST RIGHT OF REFUSAL signed into law!
We have built large support for RIGHT TO REPAIR and got it passed out of the Assembly
We defended your small business against the false accusations of Attorney General Anne Milgram
We gained wide support to move New Jersey to an all PIF Inspection System and close the CIF lanes
...and MUCH MORE!!

In each instance, we achieved these goals with the help of our friends in the Legislature!

If every member contributes just $100.00 we will be able to provide the help necessary to ensure victory for our allies.

PLEASE SEND YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS TO:
NJGCA PAC
4900 Route 33 West, Suite 100
Wall Township, NJ 07753
Please make your donation payable to NJGCA PAC

I understand that times are tough for all NJGCA members, but this is just as important as any battle we have fought in the past.

We have made great progress in Trenton. I hope that you will answer the call.

*NEW*Energy Information Agency Weekly Retail Gasoline Prices

Each week, the Energy Information Administration publishes a list of average gasoline prices for the previous three weeks. NJGCA will begin including this list with the Weekly Road Warrior. Remember, these prices are for reflective of self-serve everywhere except NJ.