December 9, 2011

Dear NJGCA Member:

Here's what you'll find in this edition of the NJGCA Road Warrior, and thank you for reading:

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR'S MESSAGE: GREETINGS & SAL-UTATIONS!
•Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Natural Gas, the Exxon selloff, and More!

NEWS AROUND THE STATE
•House votes to ban synthetic drugs commonly called “bath salts”
•Has the War with Iran Already Begun?
•America set to become a net exporter of petroleum fuel products
•Oil’s up, gas is down. Why?

APPRAISAL SERVICE
•Regency Property Appraisers: Serving all your appraisal needs in NJ, NY, and beyond!

If you’ve been paying attention to the marketplace the last few weeks, you may have noticed a remarkable trend: the price of crude oil has been increasing while the price of gasoline has been decreasing. This phenomenon has happened before. In September 2007, I watched as crude oil prices rose every day. I was closely watching the rack prices waiting to see a jump in prices for gas too. It took well over a month before gas prices reacted as I expected. I had a curiosity as to why this happened, a curiosity that has still never been satisfied.

I recognized speculators were driving up the price of crude oil, so I sent out a tongue-in-cheek press release admonishing the speculators and the big oil companies. Throughout 2007 and into 2008 we saw both gas and crude prices skyrocket to previously unthinkable levels. What happened after that? Crude and gas prices both plummeted. And why did that happen? Because consumers rejected the sky high prices. What else happened? The historic economic collapse that we are all still suffering through every day. There were a lot of reasons for the recession, but the straw that broke camel’s back was gas prices at $4.25 a gallon. Since then, demand has never recovered.

Because gas and crude are commodities, investors are continuing to gamble the price both up and down. This past month is an example where investors believe there is potential for the crude supply and demand ratio to change in favor of a price increase, so they are bidding the price upwards. However, those same investors are still leery about the supply and demand ratio of gas because demand has never fully recovered from 2008. Even though refineries are not operating at 100% capacity we still have enough refined product that we are now exporting more petroleum fuel products than we are importing for the first time since 1949! If the trends continue as they are, the US is going to continue to be a net exporter for the next decade at least.

Now the next question you’re likely to ask is: If there’s so much refined fuel sitting around that it’s being shipped overseas, why hasn’t the price of gasoline gone down further, back to 2 dollars a gallon? The price hasn’t gone down because demand is increasing overseas and the people are willing to pay more for it. If they weren’t, then the price would go down because of the rules of supply and demand. Oil companies ship their products to wherever they can get the most money while maintaining the supply here at a reasonable level.

Our nationwide inventories are normally maintained around 23-27 days of supply. This means that theoretically, if not another drop of gasoline was refined, the country could continue at the same level of consumption as it does now for 23-27 days. With consumer demand in the US down, its easy keep inventories at that level, so oil companies export the extra refined product.

The big question is; will we see another jump in the price of gas to match the increase in the price of crude. The answer: I don’t know, and no one else does! You may be shocked to learn it, but I’m not a fortune teller. I would say that I can’t imagine the price will increase by a meaningful amount unless there is also a rise in demand (unlikely). Of course there’s always the possibility of something coming out of the blue and dramatically changing the world. Military action in Iran for example would have tremendous consequences on the world energy market.

Unfortunately, the pie is shrinking, and everybody still wants the same size slice. I want to get you guys thinking about the future. The pie is going to continue to shrink and shrink faster. Just this afternoon NJGCA attended the opening of a compressed natural gas fueling facility in Mount Arlington. This facility is going to supply a fleet of garbage trucks in the area. More and more fleets are looking to move toward natural gas. Its estimated that the efforts to promote natural gas have already displaced over half a million gallons of gasoline, and as the infrastructure grows the effect is going to snowball as more fleets see the positive effects of natural gas and other forms of clean reliable energy. You need to get out in front of these changes if you want to survive and prosper! NJGCA and our allies in the clean industry sector can help you work towards partnering with fleets to have them use your facility to exclusively provide them with compressed natural gas for their trucks, ensuring you a steady supply of reliable customers and making the investment all the more worth it. The event also had on display a new Honda Civic that runs on compressed natural gas, showing that soon regular consumers will have these cars, especially once you are able to provide them a location to fill up.

The shift away from petroleum will start with local electric fleets and military electric vehicles and then expand into the consumer market. If people are plugging in at the supermarket or their home, they are not buying energy from you. You’ve heard me say it a million times and now you’ll hear it a million and 1 times: you are not in the gasoline business, you are in the transportation energy business. Between the government mandating increases in gas mileage and long term trends like the development of China and India pushing gas prices higher and higher, the petroleum market is going to shrink further and further. Combine that with all the recent discoveries of natural gas right here in the US and its clear things don’t look good for gasoline. BPU President Lee Solomon said today at the ribbon cutting that there is enough natural gas here in the United States to heat our homes, generate all our electricity, and power all our cars for 100 years!

Below are a few pictures of the new natural gas facility in Mount Arlington:

On Wednesday night we held a tremendously successful event for all our Exxon dealers to discuss the packages they received from Exxon and to introduce them to the people they will need to know if they plan to buy their location. You can see from the pictures below that turnout dwarfed our wildest imaginations and the place was packed. I was happy to help set prospective station owners up with partners who can be trusted to treat them fairly, something I know the distributors designated by Exxon won’t do. Everyone I work with knows quite well, and I reiterated it last night, that if they ever screw my members, I will find out where they live and drive my car through their house!!

I shouldn’t have to tell you, but you should absolutely purchase your station from Exxon. Here’s a conversation I had with a dealer just the other day. He’s currently paying $17,000 a month in rent. If he were to buy his station, then after the cost of a mortgage, the cost of the additional insurance that Exxon currently covers, and the cost of taxes, his total monthly out of pocket cost is $13,000. His cash flow instantly improves by $4,000 a month every month. Eventually that mortgage can be paid off and then several years from now he can sell the station himself and make $2 million back, rather than leasing it and being left with nothing but the memories. On top of that, as the owner of his station he will be able to make an honest contract with a distributor who sell Exxon branded product and he will save anywhere from 7-15 cents per gallon based on what he’s currently paying Exxon for his tank wagon price. That generates another $10,000 per month.

Worst of all though, if he doesn’t buy then the new company that takes over his station will screw him out of business. I can confirm that all three of the distributors who have made deals with Exxon are EVIL people. They have a long history of taking over stations and then sticking you with crushing rent increases, and a dealer tank wagon price that will decrease your volume by 50% over a 2-3 yr period (if you can stay in business that long). Why? Because they want you to turn in your keys to them so they can take it and run it themselves. How do I know? They’ve done it time and time again here in New Jersey and in other states like New York, Maryland, Virginia and DC where they have decimated the industry.

It’s a time like this that causes me to think about the Right of First Refusal law that was signed on June 10, 2009. It was an historic victory of tremendous proportions. I shudder to think what things would be like right now if there was no law. Thankfully, that’s a reality we will never have to experience.

12/8/2011:
House votes to ban synthetic drugs commonly called “bath salts”
The House has voted to ban certain synthetic drugs now sold legally in most states that mimic the hallucinogenic and stimulant properties of marijuana, cocaine and methamphetamines. Supporters of the measure said synthetic drugs marketed under names such as “bath salts” and “plant food” can be just as harmful as the narcotics they are meant to imitate.

12/6/2011:
Has the War with Iran Already Begun?
Asked whether the United States, in cooperation with Israel, was now engaged in a covert war against Iran’s nuclear program that may include the Stuxnet virus, the blowing-up of facilities and the assassination or kidnapping of scientists, one recently retired U.S. official privy to up-to-date intelligence would not deny it.

12/1/2011:
America set to become a net exporter of petroleum fuel products
With declining domestic demand amid increased domestic capacity, coupled with soaring international needs for refined petroleum products, for the first time in 62 years, this year the United States is expected to export more petroleum fuel products than it imports.

12/1/2011:
Oil’s up, gas is down. Why?
Those anxiously watching the rally in U.S. oil prices over the past few weeks have received a pleasant surprise at the pump: while oil has shot upward, gasoline is moving in the opposite direction. The moves may seem counter-intuitive, since crude oil is used to produce gas. But while the two are closely related, there are a number of factors that can push their prices apart in the short term.

TRAINING CLASSES!!
-ALL CLASSES WILL BE HELD AT NJGCA HEADQUARTERS-
66 Morris Avenue - Springfield, NJ 07081 (Union County)

PLEASE NOTE: FUTURE DATES WILL BE ADDED UPON REQUEST AND ACCORDING TO DEMAND. CONTACT DEBBIE at 973-376-0066 or DEBBIE@NJGCA.ORG TO LET HER KNOW YOU ARE INTERESTED IN TAKING A SPECIFIC CLASS. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO GAUGE YOUR NEEDS AND KEEP TRACK OF THOSE WISHING TO PARTICIPATE!!< /em>

We have had a number of NJGCA members successfully reduce their rate per kWh signing up through our energy saving program. We know it’s difficult to collect 12 months worth of previous electric bills to get an “accurate” analysis when comparing a variable rate to a fixed rate, but we now have another option available.

This new solution is a power purchase option; the other program is still in full force and has saved members thousands of dollars. If you sign up for the power purchase option, you will be grouped with other NJGCA members until the minimum KW demand is acquired. By pooling the member’s usage together, you will be able to take advantage, as large energy users do, and receive a lower kWh rate.

Each member will receive their own contract. Each member is responsible to sign and return the agreement the day it is received in order to secure the price for their group.

Please do your due diligence, so when you receive the proposal and the agreement you will be able to make an intelligent decision.

If by chance, you still want us to assess you bills, to give you a price to compare, we will require12 months of your most recent utility bills.

There are no bills required, but we would still like to have one bill per meter on file to check account #’s, meter #’s service addresses and other pertinent information incase there is a problem.

The term of the agreement is for 12 months. During this term period, you will have price protection against any energy price increases along with a low fixed kWh rate.

If you are interested in becoming part of this power purchase option, please contact Phil Apruzzi at the NJGCA.

Remember when you sign up your energy through the NJGCA Energy Program, TMP makes a considerable donation to the NJGCA Scholarship Fund through their proceeds. This has no affect on your rate, and costs you nothing out of pocket.

We hope to help hundreds of NJGCA members reduce their utility costs by participating in this and our other cost reduction programs. Our purpose, in the endeavor, is to help NJGCA members lower their energy costs while supporting the NJGCA Scholarship Fund.

Contact Phil Apruzzi at 973-376-0066 or email Phil at phil@njgca.org. Mention that you are interested in saving money on your energy bills. NJGCA & TMP Energy Solutions will handle all the rest.

POLITICAL PARTICIPATON: THE NJGCA PAC

DEFENDING OUR MEMBERS.
PROTECTING YOUR INTERESTS.
ANSWER THE CALL & CONTRIBUTE TODAY!!

Promoting our agenda in Trenton is of utmost importance to NJGCA and our members.

However, in order to truly affect the debate, we must ensure our friends in the Legislature are re-elected. It is for this reason that your Association has established the NJGCA PAC.

For too long, the weight of funding our Political Action Committee, the arm of the Association responsible for political donations, has rested upon a few. This is not only unfair to those few members who have shouldered this burden, but means we are not utilizing our full strength to affect the debate in Trenton.

To truly understand the importance of supporting our allies, consider our successes in Trenton:

We defeated BELOW COST SELLING
We made history in getting FIRST RIGHT OF REFUSAL signed into law!
We have built large support for RIGHT TO REPAIR and got it passed out of the Assembly
We defended your small business against the false accusations of Attorney General Anne Milgram
We gained wide support to move New Jersey to an all PIF Inspection System and close the CIF lanes
...and MUCH MORE!!

In each instance, we achieved these goals with the help of our friends in the Legislature!
If every member contributes just $100.00 we will be able to provide the help necessary to ensure victory for our allies.

PLEASE SEND YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS TO:
NJGCA PAC
66 Morris Avenue
Springfield, NJ 07081
Please make your donation payable to NJGCA PAC

I understand that times are tough for all NJGCA members, but this is just as important as any battle we have fought in the past.

We have made great progress in Trenton. I hope that you will answer the call.

THE MEMBER TOOL BOX &n bsp; &nbs p; & nbsp; &nb sp;
ON THE NJGCA HOMEPAGE

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NEWS AROUND THE STATE ARCHIVE
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KNOW YOUR TERRITORY MANAGER!

Henry Darden: Territory Manager for Middlesex, Union, Somerset, Part of Essex (Southern Half)
Cell: 973-477-0057
Email: henry@njgca.org

Jack Leli: Territory Manager for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean, Salem
Cell: 732-995-1637
Email: jack@njgca.org

Bob Quirk: Territory Manager for Bergen, Hudson, Part of Essex (Northern Half)
Cell: 201-214-8836
Email: bob@njgca.org

Frank Stewart: Territory Manager for Morris, Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Passaic
Cell: 973-234-7403
Email: frank@njgca.org